A former United States mayor, Mark Arnold, has stirred controversy after stating that the breakup of Nigeria is “likely inevitable and just.”
Arnold made the remarks during a presentation to members of the US Congress titled “Nigeria at the Crossroads: The Case for Action,” where he argued that Nigeria’s current structure is a legacy of colonial design that has failed to deliver long-term stability.
In his presentation, the founder of Africa Arise International claimed that British colonial authorities did not intend for Nigeria to succeed as a unified state, citing historical and structural challenges within the federation.
He advocated for what he described as a “freely chosen constitutional future,” suggesting that Nigerians should determine their political arrangement through a referendum.
Arnold referenced the defunct Republic of Biafra, describing it as one of the fastest-growing regions prior to the Nigerian Civil War, and revisited events surrounding the 1967–1970 conflict, including humanitarian consequences and international involvement.
He also drew parallels with other historical partitions such as India-Pakistan and Sudan-South Sudan, arguing that some colonial-era states required restructuring or separation to achieve stability.
On current issues, Arnold raised concerns about insecurity and alleged religious violence in Nigeria, referencing the designation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act by former US President Donald Trump.
He further criticised the Nigerian government under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, alleging inadequate response to internal displacement and humanitarian concerns.
However, his comments are likely to generate debate, as Nigeria’s unity and territorial integrity remain constitutionally protected and widely supported by the government and many stakeholders.
Arnold’s position reflects a long-standing viewpoint among some international commentators and advocacy groups but does not represent any official policy of the United States government.
