Nigeria recorded an estimated N5.13tn windfall in oil revenue within two months, driven largely by a sharp rise in global crude prices linked to tensions between the United States and Iran.
The surge pushed earnings far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget assumptions, which were based on a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.8 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Since the crisis began in late February, global oil prices have climbed significantly, with Brent Crude trading around $110 per barrel and Bonny Light reaching as high as $134 per barrel.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank of Nigeria show that in March, Nigeria produced an average of 1.55 million barrels per day at an average price of $95.03 per barrel. This translated to about N201.80bn in daily revenue—exceeding the budget benchmark by N38.38bn per day and generating a total windfall of N1.19tn for the month.
The gains intensified in April as both production and prices rose. Output increased to about 1.7 million barrels per day, while prices surged to an average of $127.05 per barrel. Daily revenue climbed to approximately N294.84bn, resulting in a monthly windfall of about N3.94tn.
Combined, the excess earnings from March and April total an estimated N5.13tn, with the bulk of the increase attributed to higher crude prices rather than improved production levels.
Despite this revenue boost, analysts warn that the gains are temporary and expose Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil market volatility. Even in March, when production fell below target, revenues still exceeded projections due to elevated prices—underscoring the country’s reliance on external market forces.
Further analysis indicates that without the price surge, revenues would have been significantly lower. At the benchmark price, March earnings would have dropped to about N137.71bn daily, while April figures would have stood at roughly N150.50bn per day.
Meanwhile, the rise in crude prices has had immediate domestic consequences. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recently increased the official selling prices of crude grades, including Bonny Light, while refiners such as Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised petrol prices, pushing pump rates to between N1,350 and N1,400 per litre.
Industry stakeholders have described the situation as a “double-edged sword”—boosting government revenue while intensifying economic hardship for citizens through higher fuel costs, transportation fares, and inflation.
Calls have intensified for the Federal Government to deploy part of the windfall to support vulnerable households through targeted interventions such as cash transfers and transport subsidies.
Energy experts also urged reforms in domestic crude pricing and investment in alternative energy sources, warning that without structural changes, Nigeria will remain exposed to global oil price shocks despite periodic revenue gains.
