A political analyst at Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Murtala Muhammad, has warned that growing doubts about the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) could deepen political divisions and trigger more election-related litigation ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking in an interview with Daily Post, Muhammad said recent developments, including INEC’s decision not to recognise some national leaders of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), were already shaping public perception of the electoral body’s independence.
“This perception has reinforced broader claims that the Independent National Electoral Commission is facilitating a gradual shift toward a one-party dominant system ahead of the 2027 elections,” he said.
Nigeria’s political landscape has recently witnessed tensions within opposition parties, particularly the ADC, where leadership disputes have created uncertainty over party control and drawn INEC into the controversy.
Muhammad noted that opposition figures have become increasingly vocal in their criticism of the commission, with some calling for the resignation of the INEC chairman over alleged actions and social media expressions perceived as sympathetic to the ruling All Progressives Congress.
He said that regardless of whether the allegations are proven, public perception remains critical. “These narratives carry significant implications for voter confidence and the broader outcome of the 2027 elections,” he said, warning that trust in the commission could become increasingly polarised along political lines.
According to him, such divisions could influence voter turnout, increase disputes before and after the elections, and affect public acceptance of results. He noted that Nigeria’s 2019 and 2023 general elections both ended in prolonged legal challenges, highlighting the importance of confidence in the electoral process.
Commenting on the ADC leadership dispute involving Nafiu Bala, Muhammad said suspicions of possible cooperation between some opposition figures and the ruling party were already affecting political trust and reinforcing concerns about imbalance in the political space.
He warned that internal divisions within opposition parties, combined with doubts about the electoral body, could weaken their ability to mobilise voter confidence ahead of the polls. However, he added that transparency, fairness, and clearer communication from INEC could still help restore public trust as preparations for the 2027 elections continue.
